REVOPS TRAINING

Close Date

The date an opportunity is expected to be signed. The single most consequential field in a pipeline record.

Where a real one comes from

Two components: when the buyer expects to decide, and how long their paper process takes after that. The second is routinely omitted, which is why deals won on every other dimension still slip.

The distribution tells you whether they are real

Plot closed-won by day of period across eight quarters. Heavy concentration in the final days reflects the compensation boundary rather than customer demand — and it means the dates carry little information about when anything will actually happen.

Making the field trustworthy

  1. Require a reason on every change, with a short reason list. The reasons are more useful than the dates.

  2. Track slip count per opportunity. Two or more with no intent change is the strongest single at-risk signal you have.

  3. Never allow the default to be quarter end. A default that matches the compensation boundary guarantees the field records the plan rather than the buyer.

  4. Report the share of pipeline whose close date has moved this period, alongside coverage. Coverage over stale dates is not coverage.

RELATED TERMS

Forecast Accuracy

How closely forecasts match actual results, measured consistently over time. The metric that separates disciplined forecasting from lucky forecasting.

Decision Process

The sequence of steps, approvals and reviews a buyer must complete before a purchase can be executed.

Weighted Pipeline

Pipeline value multiplied by a probability assigned to each stage, producing an expected value rather than a gross total.

Pipeline Hygiene

Whether pipeline records are accurate and current — as distinct from pipeline health, which is whether the pipeline is any good.

COMMON QUESTIONS

How should a close date be set?
From the buyer's process — the decision date plus the paper process that follows it. A date chosen to fit your quarter is an aspiration recorded in a field the forecast reads as fact.
What does close-date clustering at period end indicate?
That dates are administrative rather than derived. Some clustering is real, driven by buyer budget cycles; a spike on the final days usually reflects your own compensation design.
How many times can a close date slip before it means something?
Twice is the signal. A first slip is normal; a second with no change in buyer intent almost always means the paper process was never mapped.
Should reps be able to change close dates freely?
Yes, but with a reason recorded. Locking the field produces stale data; allowing silent changes destroys the forecast's history and makes slippage invisible.

FURTHER READING

Decomposing Sales Forecast Error: Estimation, Structural and Incentive Sources

Sales forecasting is judgmental forecasting performed by interested parties. The forecasting literature has established what makes judgmental forecasts fail and what corrects them — most of it applies directly, and almost none of it is practised.

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